Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-11-04?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 56¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 4

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$174.86

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 56.5¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares22,837

Combined PnL+$791.3

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,060

Combined PnL-$616.43

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 51.7¢	$11.0K	$11.8K	+$817.21	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 48.4¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	-$439.45	50% 27743-27603 (55346)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$353.29	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.2¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$523.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.4¢	$1.0K	$850.36	-$170.07
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 47.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$46.08	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$25.32
└ No leg	Noavg 45.1¢	$385.32	$456.72	+$71.4
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$64.93	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.9¢	$663.12	$782.84	+$119.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.5¢	$650.64	$595.85	-$54.79
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 53.9¢	$409.67	$433.45	+$23.78	50% 25470-25164 (50634)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.8¢	$197.68	$238.79	+$41.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.9¢	$211.99	$194.66	-$17.33
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 46.2¢	$324.71	$308.99	-$15.71	74% 2413-849 (3262)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 53¢	$1.2K	$218.75	-$175.94	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 42¢	$167.99	$161.99	-$6	51% 1779-1697 (3476)
RN1	Noavg 43¢	$163.22	$157.7	-$5.52	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$30.28	$36.66	+$6.38	51% 7644-7356 (15000)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$18.64	$14.35	-$4.29	35% 17899-33380 (51279)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$5.84	$4.79	-$1.05	39% 1000-1544 (2544)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$5.12	$4.35	-$0.77	34% 1146-2273 (3419)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$10,975.74

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$817.21

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,029.1

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$439.45

Record

50%

27743-27603 (55346)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,620.17

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$353.29

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

Both legs:

No$2,599.7446.2¢+$523.36

Yes$1,020.4353.4¢-$170.07

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,419.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$46.08

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

Both legs:

Yes$1,034.6147.7¢-$25.32

No$385.3245.1¢+$71.4

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,313.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$64.93

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

Both legs:

No$663.1247.9¢+$119.72

Yes$650.6447.5¢-$54.79

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$409.67

Value

$433.45

PnL

+$23.78

Record

50%

25470-25164 (50634)

Both legs:

No$197.6841.8¢+$41.11

Yes$211.9953.9¢-$17.33

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$324.71

Value

$308.99

PnL

-$15.71

Record

74%

2413-849 (3262)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,173.85

Value

$218.75

PnL

-$175.94

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$167.99

Value

$161.99

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

1779-1697 (3476)

RN1

Invested

$163.22

Value

$157.7

PnL

-$5.52

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$30.28

Value

$36.66

PnL

+$6.38

Record

51%

7644-7356 (15000)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$18.64

Value

$14.35

PnL

-$4.29

Record

35%

17899-33380 (51279)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$1.05

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.77

Record

34%

1146-2273 (3419)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.