Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 1.1¢

+44% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares1,084,043

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

1927h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.4K	$6.7K	+$3.3K	67% 751-378 (1129)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$299.27	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.3K	$969.62	-$352.5	54% 325-279 (604)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yes	$488.8	$488.8	+$177.12	60% 1348-884 (2232)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$330	+$211.89	64% 154-88 (242)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$185.71	$196.58	+$19.87	9% 48-464 (512)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$140.68	$147.07	+$6.39	38% 20-32 (52)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$51.27	$88.12	+$40.82	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$68.18	+$25.92	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$55	+$27.59	68% 2074-957 (3031)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$40.82	+$16.06	26% 351-985 (1336)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$13.15	$34.48	+$36.05	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.05	$11	+$3.73	80% 2709-698 (3407)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.21	+$0.22	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,438.18

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,027.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$299.27

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,322.21

Value

$969.62

PnL

-$352.5

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$488.8

Value

$488.8

PnL

+$177.12

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$330

PnL

+$211.89

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.71

Value

$196.58

PnL

+$19.87

Record

48-464 (512)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.68

Value

$147.07

PnL

+$6.39

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.27

Value

$88.12

PnL

+$40.82

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$68.18

PnL

+$25.92

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$55

PnL

+$27.59

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$40.82

PnL

+$16.06

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.15

Value

$34.48

PnL

+$36.05

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$11

PnL

+$3.73

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.22

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

1927h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4482.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

4582.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.