Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$98.26

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.5¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares1,146,306

Combined PnL-$98.26

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

703h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$374.33	67% 751-378 (1129)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$273.2	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$165	+$46.89	64% 154-88 (242)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$124.97	$91.29	-$33.66	66% 944-496 (1440)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$30.72	$55.55	+$24.84	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yes	$55	$55	-$15.14	60% 1348-884 (2232)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$34.09	-$11.28	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$27.5	+$0.09	68% 2074-957 (3031)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$25.65	$22.03	-$3.62	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$20.41	-$4.35	26% 351-985 (1336)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$14.34	$15.78	+$1.43	71% 968-396 (1364)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.05	$5.5	-$1.78	80% 2709-698 (3407)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.22	$1.56	-$0.66	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.1	+$0.1	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,438.18

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$374.33

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,688.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$273.2

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$165

PnL

+$46.89

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.97

Value

$91.29

PnL

-$33.66

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.72

Value

$55.55

PnL

+$24.84

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55

Value

$55

PnL

-$15.14

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$34.09

PnL

-$11.28

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$0.09

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.65

Value

$22.03

PnL

-$3.62

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$20.41

PnL

-$4.35

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.34

Value

$15.78

PnL

+$1.43

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$1.78

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.66

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

703h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.