Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.4¢

-20% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares1,188,097

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

219h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$998.22	67% 751-378 (1129)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$597.44	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$127.75	$590.37	+$73.86	41% 166-240 (406)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$135	+$16.89	64% 154-88 (242)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$27.89	-$17.47	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$22.5	-$4.91	68% 2074-957 (3031)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$25.65	$18.02	-$7.63	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$16.7	-$8.06	26% 351-985 (1336)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$14.11	+$14.11	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.05	$4.5	-$2.78	80% 2709-698 (3407)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.22	$1.28	-$0.94	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.72	$0.45	-$0.27	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.09	+$0.09	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,438.18

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$998.22

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,903.72

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$597.44

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.75

Value

$590.37

PnL

+$73.86

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$135

PnL

+$16.89

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$27.89

PnL

-$17.47

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$4.91

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.65

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$7.63

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$8.06

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$14.11

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$2.78

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.94

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.27

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.09

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

219h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6535.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

6635.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.