Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 1¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares1,141,702

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

221 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$3.8K	$5.2K	+$1.4K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$96.37	54% 325-279 (604)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$797.81	$1.2K	+$279.61	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$10.7K	$729.21	$-4.9K	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
CarCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$466.66	$583.32	+$116.66	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$681.62	$497.57	-$184.05	55% 555-461 (1016)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$300	+$181.89	64% 154-88 (242)
TheKinginYellowCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$135.99	$170	+$34.01	68% 830-398 (1228)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$37.11	+$10.49	26% 351-985 (1336)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$2.86	$2.86	+$0.63	7% 14-187 (201)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,753.89

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,515.5

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$96.37

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$797.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$279.61

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,737.97

Value

$729.21

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$466.66

Value

$583.32

PnL

+$116.66

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR

Yes

Invested

$681.62

Value

$497.57

PnL

-$184.05

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$300

PnL

+$181.89

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

TheKinginYellowCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.99

Value

$170

PnL

+$34.01

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$37.11

PnL

+$10.49

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.63

Record

14-187 (201)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

221 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4711.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

4811.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.