Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 17 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 2.6¢

+4% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares623,882

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$8.1K	$6.1K	$-1.9K	55% 555-461 (1016)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$2.0K	$4.3K	+$2.1K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$8.58	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$834.85	$1.2K	+$324.54	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$13.5K	$924.98	$-5.7K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
CarCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$570.99	$551.97	-$19.01	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$508.21	$548.87	+$30.51	54% 325-279 (604)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$116	$108	-$10	47% 217-240 (457)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$100.2	+$73.58	26% 351-985 (1336)
studmuffin6969CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$87	$81	-$7.5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$35.16	$73.9	+$38.74	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
GayPrideCTR	Yes	$50.0K	$67.5	+$46.72	49% 357-367 (724)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.05	$39.11	-$14.74	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$8.08	$8.25	+$0.17	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$8.07	$8.07	+$5.59	7% 14-187 (201)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.15	$7.3	+$5.15	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.51	+$0.5	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,082

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,971.08

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,688.06

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$8.58

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$834.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$324.54

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$13,544.5

Value

$924.98

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$570.99

Value

$551.97

PnL

-$19.01

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Yes

Invested

$508.21

Value

$548.87

PnL

+$30.51

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$108

PnL

-$10

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$100.2

PnL

+$73.58

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

studmuffin6969CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87

Value

$81

PnL

-$7.5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.16

Value

$73.9

PnL

+$38.74

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$50,000

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$46.72

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$39.11

PnL

-$14.74

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.17

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.07

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$5.59

Record

14-187 (201)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$5.15

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.5

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2538.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

2638.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.