Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 100¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

Total Value

$47.6K

Combined PnL

$855.29

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$47.6K

Total Shares47,813

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$44.52

Total Shares8,904

Combined PnL-$355.5

Yes — 94%No — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 99.1¢	$14.4K	$14.4K	+$30.95	78% 342-99 (441)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 97.7¢	$13.1K	$13.3K	+$233.59	76% 318-102 (420)
BR browne	Yesavg 99.5¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$3.5	71% 173-70 (243)
classified	Yesavg 94.1¢	$4.7K	$5.0K	+$269.87	58% 844-614 (1458)
65 65765757	Yesavg 94.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$92.33	79% 277-74 (351)
paddaa	Yesavg 92¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$164.59	56% 836-645 (1481)
MI MissaoComFlavio	Yesavg 96.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.78	75% 234-77 (311)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 94.4¢	$1.5K	$994.77	+$322.01	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 94.5¢	$536.76	$565.03	+$25.84	89% 4653-547 (5200)
funnyday	Yesavg 94.1¢	$282.29	$298.42	+$14.7	50% 3914-3899 (7813)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 92.9¢	$157.18	$156.16	+$10.1	63% 166-99 (265)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 94.7¢	$113.22	$119.52	+$6.3	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 99.3¢	$79.42	$79.56	+$0.14	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 4.3¢	$296.91	$44.52	-$355.5	— 2-12 (14)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 99.4¢	$8.22	$8.23	+$0.01	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Yesavg 93.6¢	$3.58	$3.65	+$0.07	50% 147-145 (292)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$14,379

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$30.95

Record

78%

342-99 (441)

LulaVaiPerder

Yes

Invested

$13,096

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$233.59

Record

76%

318-102 (420)

browne

Yes

Invested

$6,965

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.5

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

classified

Yes

Invested

$4,712.98

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$269.87

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

65765757

Yes

Invested

$2,127

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$92.33

Record

79%

277-74 (351)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$2,017.66

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$164.59

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

MissaoComFlavio

Yes

Invested

$1,194

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.78

Record

75%

234-77 (311)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,510.52

Value

$994.77

PnL

+$322.01

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$536.76

Value

$565.03

PnL

+$25.84

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

funnyday

Yes

Invested

$282.29

Value

$298.42

PnL

+$14.7

Record

50%

3914-3899 (7813)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$157.18

Value

$156.16

PnL

+$10.1

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$113.22

Value

$119.52

PnL

+$6.3

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.42

Value

$79.56

PnL

+$0.14

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$296.91

Value

$44.52

PnL

-$355.5

Record

—

2-12 (14)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.