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16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 68¢ · $25K held · ends Dec 1

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$304.93

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 67.5¢

-7% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares22,867

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No16 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares20,885

Combined PnL-$797.01

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

530h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$183.37	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$509.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.8¢	$821.42	$1.1K	+$325.83
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$89.17	57% 860-658 (1518)
MEPP	Noavg 66¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$53.52	64% 637-357 (994)
HU hugecaulk	Noavg 71.2¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$171.43	48% 15-16 (31)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 74.8¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$314.07	39% 218-348 (566)
DirkDiggler67CTR	Yesavg 12.5¢	$614.18	$1.6K	+$958.45	60% 512-339 (851)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$1.83	52% 242-226 (468)
FO Folletin	Noavg 90.6¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$256.19	69% 426-192 (618)
JE Jest55	Noavg 80.3¢	$1.4K	$928.57	-$138.04	75% 1045-342 (1387)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 66.3¢	$836.22	$844.87	+$27.57	56% 18263-14185 (32448)
DI Ditto321	Noavg 67.1¢	$705.62	$704.73	-$0.9	49% 314-321 (635)
BloodyMummer	Noavg 63¢	$378	$402	+$24	77% 576-168 (744)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 84.1¢	$360.03	$335.02	-$25	56% 15814-12510 (28324)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 75.4¢	$1.5K	$330.95	+$101.31	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
CarCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$132.85	$290	+$157.15	67% 4215-2059 (6274)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$187.53	$219.7	+$32.17	66% 976-500 (1476)
88 881112	Noavg 74¢	$222	$201	-$21	37% 583-993 (1576)
Anjun	Noavg 88¢	$195.35	$148.74	-$43.29	55% 5020-4099 (9119)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 86¢	$142.19	$95.33	-$29.77	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
randomWalkingShrimp<$100	Noavg 66¢	$79.2	$82.2	+$3	77% 1224-368 (1592)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$16.74	$60.67	+$43.94	50% 1008-1023 (2031)
Tenebrus7<$100	Noavg 83¢	$44.63	$36.02	-$7.8	73% 2988-1086 (4074)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$5.94	$7.17	+$1.24	57% 1124-855 (1979)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 53¢	$4.06	$5.13	+$1.07	53% 29191-26096 (55287)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$4,025.63

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$183.37

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

No$2,974.6279¢-$509.2

Yes$821.4221.8¢+$325.83

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,661.99

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$89.17

Record

57%

860-658 (1518)

MEPP

Invested

$3,407.29

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$53.52

Record

64%

637-357 (994)

hugecaulk

Invested

$2,918.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$171.43

Record

48%

15-16 (31)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$3,024.22

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$314.07

Record

39%

218-348 (566)

DirkDiggler67CTR

Yes

Invested

$614.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$958.45

Record

60%

512-339 (851)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,203.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$1.83

Record

52%

242-226 (468)

Folletin

Invested

$1,400.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$256.19

Record

69%

426-192 (618)

Jest55

Invested

$1,423.4

Value

$928.57

PnL

-$138.04

Record

75%

1045-342 (1387)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$836.22

Value

$844.87

PnL

+$27.57

Record

56%

18263-14185 (32448)

Ditto321

Invested

$705.62

Value

$704.73

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

314-321 (635)

BloodyMummer

Invested

$378

Value

$402

PnL

+$24

Record

77%

576-168 (744)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$360.03

Value

$335.02

PnL

-$25

Record

56%

15814-12510 (28324)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,454.91

Value

$330.95

PnL

+$101.31

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.85

Value

$290

PnL

+$157.15

Record

67%

4215-2059 (6274)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$187.53

Value

$219.7

PnL

+$32.17

Record

66%

976-500 (1476)

881112

Invested

$222

Value

$201

PnL

-$21

Record

37%

583-993 (1576)

Anjun

Invested

$195.35

Value

$148.74

PnL

-$43.29

Record

55%

5020-4099 (9119)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$142.19

Value

$95.33

PnL

-$29.77

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

randomWalkingShrimp<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$82.2

PnL

+$3

Record

77%

1224-368 (1592)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.74

Value

$60.67

PnL

+$43.94

Record

50%

1008-1023 (2031)

Tenebrus7<$100

Invested

$44.63

Value

$36.02

PnL

-$7.8

Record

73%

2988-1086 (4074)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.94

Value

$7.17

PnL

+$1.24

Record

57%

1124-855 (1979)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$1.07

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

530h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.