Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 65¢ · $44K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$43.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 65¢

-4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 65%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$43.2K

Total Shares66,281

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$486.29

Total Shares1,389

Combined PnL-$7.33

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

2121h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Valen9	Noavg 69.8¢	$23.9K	$20.9K	$-1.5K	60% 407-274 (681)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 69.4¢	$8.9K	$8.3K	-$560.6	69% 156-69 (225)
GollumGekko	Noavg 62.8¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$112.73	68% 2074-958 (3032)
Udonsan	Noavg 66¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$30.81	79% 250-67 (317)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 60.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$93.93	55% 79-65 (144)
Car	Noavg 60.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$134.62	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
88 881112	Noavg 63¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$16.51	38% 567-944 (1511)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 59.9¢	$710.75	$708.5	-$2.25	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
Parz1vaICTR	Yesavg 51.8¢	$428.03	$412.24	-$15.8	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 67.1¢	$423.59	$410.76	-$12.83	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
Porx	Noavg 58.7¢	$228.85	$252.75	+$23.9	66% 1482-769 (2251)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 73.9¢	$188.31	$171.36	-$16.96	65% 527-282 (809)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$65.59	$74.06	+$8.46	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

Valen9

Invested

$23,907.52

Value

$20.9K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$8,883.52

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$560.6

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

GollumGekko

Invested

$6,031.95

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$112.73

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

Udonsan

Invested

$1,975.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$30.81

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$1,524.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$93.93

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

Car

Invested

$1,471.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$134.62

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

881112

Invested

$1,040.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.51

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$710.75

Value

$708.5

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Parz1vaICTR

Yes

Invested

$428.03

Value

$412.24

PnL

-$15.8

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$423.59

Value

$410.76

PnL

-$12.83

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

Porx

Invested

$228.85

Value

$252.75

PnL

+$23.9

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

melonmanm

Invested

$188.31

Value

$171.36

PnL

-$16.96

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.59

Value

$74.06

PnL

+$8.46

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 65%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

2121h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.0%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.