US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 59¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 30

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$252.66

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 58.5¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,929

Combined PnL+$537.88

Yes11 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares15,945

Combined PnL-$285.21

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA cashyCTR	Noavg 39¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$529.28	71% 625-259 (884)
Dragontree	Yesavg 56¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$55.39	59% 1329-939 (2268)
classified	Yesavg 56¢	$109.98	$2.9K	+$27.06	57% 873-651 (1524)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Yesavg 63.5¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$348.41	63% 29-17 (46)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$23.16	16% 1413-7629 (9042)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.8¢	$657.39	$637.16	-$100.34
└ No leg	Noavg 41.4¢	$454.47	$461.39	+$77.17
HoshinoAICTR	Noavg 42.9¢	$766.18	$777.28	+$11.1	6% 2-29 (31)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 58.5¢	$233.99	$227.99	-$8	55% 17626-14540 (32166)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 45¢	$225	$220	-$2.5	41% 21-30 (51)
pIebe	Yesavg 58.3¢	$178.91	$180.5	+$1.58	62% 929-565 (1494)
SP SPLPB	Yesavg 61.1¢	$141.08	$77.09	-$11.03	22% 830-2980 (3810)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 59.8¢	$179.07	$56.44	+$4.17	57% 41552-31291 (72843)
88 881112<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$19.98	$20.65	+$0.47	36% 602-1058 (1660)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 59.7¢	$71.75	$18.56	-$0.65	57% 25439-18984 (44423)
RA rainbowlilies	Yesavg 62¢	$327.76	$16.77	-$6	38% 3028-4887 (7915)
Car<$100	Yesavg 55.7¢	$14.34	$14.54	+$0.2	66% 4490-2319 (6809)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$3.02	$3.02	+$0	73% 13565-5024 (18589)

cashyCTR

Invested

$3,758.48

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$529.28

Record

71%

625-259 (884)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$3,102.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$55.39

Record

59%

1329-939 (2268)

classified

Yes

Invested

$109.98

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$27.06

Record

57%

873-651 (1524)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Yes

Invested

$2,885.78

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$348.41

Record

63%

29-17 (46)

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,935.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$23.16

Record

16%

1413-7629 (9042)

Both legs:

Yes$657.3959.8¢-$100.34

No$454.4741.4¢+$77.17

HoshinoAICTR

Invested

$766.18

Value

$777.28

PnL

+$11.1

Record

2-29 (31)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$233.99

Value

$227.99

PnL

-$8

Record

55%

17626-14540 (32166)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$225

Value

$220

PnL

-$2.5

Record

41%

21-30 (51)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$178.91

Value

$180.5

PnL

+$1.58

Record

62%

929-565 (1494)

SPLPB

Yes

Invested

$141.08

Value

$77.09

PnL

-$11.03

Record

22%

830-2980 (3810)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$179.07

Value

$56.44

PnL

+$4.17

Record

57%

41552-31291 (72843)

881112<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.98

Value

$20.65

PnL

+$0.47

Record

36%

602-1058 (1660)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.75

Value

$18.56

PnL

-$0.65

Record

57%

25439-18984 (44423)

rainbowlilies

Yes

Invested

$327.76

Value

$16.77

PnL

-$6

Record

38%

3028-4887 (7915)

Car<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.34

Value

$14.54

PnL

+$0.2

Record

66%

4490-2319 (6809)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

13565-5024 (18589)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.5%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.