US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

15 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 53¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$61.3K

Combined PnL

$734.4

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 28 top traders (54%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares52,244

Combined PnL-$397.05

Yes15 traders

Total Value$36.7K

Total Shares69,331

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

677h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (17 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 57% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 59% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR	Noavg 50¢	$10.0K	$9.4K	-$600	54% 325-279 (604)
MEPP	Yesavg 53.5¢	$7.8K	$8.2K	+$350.29	64% 633-352 (985)
classified	Yesavg 54.3¢	$7.1K	$7.5K	+$407.82	58% 844-614 (1458)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 50.7¢	$6.1K	$5.6K	-$489.52	56% 836-645 (1481)
BigMackyG	Yesavg 52.6¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$10.72	20% 108-423 (531)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Yesavg 50¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$163.53	64% 85-47 (132)
StarMaster	Yesavg 53.1¢	$7.0K	$2.9K	-$189.78	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
Car	Yesavg 52.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$118.66	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
tetraseCTR	Noavg 41¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$339.35	61% 839-544 (1383)
88 881112	Yesavg 48.4¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$43.56	38% 567-944 (1511)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$62.67	47% 476-535 (1011)
BR browneCTR	Noavg 40.5¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$291.8	71% 173-70 (243)
eCash	Yesavg 54.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$42.85	68% 331-155 (486)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Yesavg 46.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$153.56	73% 350-129 (479)
GollumGekkoCTR	Noavg 46.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$6.53	68% 2074-958 (3032)
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$913.49	$925.66	+$81.1	82% 1758-394 (2152)
mombil	Yesavg 52¢	$750.95	$765.42	+$7.25	55% 1191-966 (2157)
MisTKy	Yesavg 52.8¢	$1.7K	$757.88	-$1.46	71% 568-236 (804)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 47¢	$632.12	$712.32	+$73.48	89% 4653-547 (5200)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 46¢	$439.09	$469.99	+$30.9	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
debased	Yesavg 52¢	$433.66	$442	+$4.17	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 52.7¢	$373.9	$337.25	-$36.65	38% 20-32 (52)
Porx	Yesavg 52.2¢	$287	$318	+$31	66% 1482-769 (2251)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR	Noavg 47¢	$291.92	$301.99	+$10.07	69% 404-180 (584)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$78.61	$77.89	-$0.72	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$600

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$7,841.55

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$350.29

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

classified

Yes

Invested

$7,058.89

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$407.82

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$6,050.51

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$489.52

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$4,056.38

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$10.72

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Yes

Invested

$3,270.64

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$163.53

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$7,009.79

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$189.78

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Car

Yes

Invested

$2,625.71

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$118.66

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

tetraseCTR

Invested

$2,125.52

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$339.35

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

881112

Yes

Invested

$2,109.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$43.56

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$2,047.21

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$62.67

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

browneCTR

Invested

$1,668.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$291.8

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$1,430.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$42.85

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

M2sx92kljs42

Yes

Invested

$1,119

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$153.56

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

GollumGekkoCTR

Invested

$1,039.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.53

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR

Invested

$913.49

Value

$925.66

PnL

+$81.1

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

mombil

Yes

Invested

$750.95

Value

$765.42

PnL

+$7.25

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

MisTKy

Yes

Invested

$1,680.04

Value

$757.88

PnL

-$1.46

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$632.12

Value

$712.32

PnL

+$73.48

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$439.09

Value

$469.99

PnL

+$30.9

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

debased

Yes

Invested

$433.66

Value

$442

PnL

+$4.17

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$373.9

Value

$337.25

PnL

-$36.65

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Porx

Yes

Invested

$287

Value

$318

PnL

+$31

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

SeniorLaghettoCTR

Invested

$291.92

Value

$301.99

PnL

+$10.07

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$78.61

Value

$77.89

PnL

-$0.72

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 28 top traders (54%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

677h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (17 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 57% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 59% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.5%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.