US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (72%) · Yes at 100¢ · $82K held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 72%

Total Value

$82.2K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 99.9¢

+3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$82.1K

Total Shares82,259

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No5 traders

Total Value$50.74

Total Shares33,829

Combined PnL-$889.97

Yes — 72%No — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

128h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI pilimili	Yesavg 97.1¢	$38.6K	$38.6K	+$1.1K	0% 0-36 (36)
pIebe	Yesavg 95.2¢	$17.6K	$18.5K	+$862.48	—
ON onekey02	Yesavg 99.8¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	+$6.88	— 1-1 (2)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 97.3¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$120.87	0% 0-30 (30)
yen4u	Yesavg 99.8¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$3.32	33% 7-14 (21)
2H 2HAE	Yesavg 95.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$96.74	12% 6-46 (52)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 96.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$58.76	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 97.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$37.68	68% 47-22 (69)
32 328.400.fund	Yesavg 91.1¢	$539.52	$590.95	+$51.43	— 1-10 (11)
88 881112	Yesavg 88¢	$451.55	$499.47	+$47.91	0% 0-209 (209)
JE Jest55	Yesavg 88.4¢	$179.03	$202.27	+$23.24	— 0-9 (9)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 97.8¢	$116.58	$118.92	+$2.34	— 4-2 (6)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 96.2¢	$96.15	$99.56	+$3.41	53% 86-75 (161)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$423.27	$22.68	-$400.79	—
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 3.1¢	$420.5	$20.34	-$400.16	— 0-8 (8)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$53.54	$4.48	-$49.05	0% 0-63 (63)
Rex416CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$39.71	$3	-$36.71	—
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$3.51	$0.25	-$3.26	— 0-5 (5)

pilimili

Yes

Invested

$38,631.6

Value

$38.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

0-36 (36)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$17,646.55

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$862.48

Record

—

onekey02

Yes

Invested

$8,550

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$6.88

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$4,678.55

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$120.87

Record

0-30 (30)

yen4u

Yes

Invested

$4,767.13

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$3.32

Record

33%

7-14 (21)

2HAE

Yes

Invested

$2,099.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$96.74

Record

12%

6-46 (52)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$1,735.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$58.76

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$1,507.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$37.68

Record

68%

47-22 (69)

328.400.fund

Yes

Invested

$539.52

Value

$590.95

PnL

+$51.43

Record

—

1-10 (11)

881112

Yes

Invested

$451.55

Value

$499.47

PnL

+$47.91

Record

0-209 (209)

Jest55

Yes

Invested

$179.03

Value

$202.27

PnL

+$23.24

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$116.58

Value

$118.92

PnL

+$2.34

Record

—

4-2 (6)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.15

Value

$99.56

PnL

+$3.41

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Invested

$423.27

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$400.79

Record

—

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$420.5

Value

$20.34

PnL

-$400.16

Record

—

0-8 (8)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$53.54

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$49.05

Record

0-63 (63)

Rex416CTR<$100

Invested

$39.71

Value

PnL

-$36.71

Record

—

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$3.26

Record

—

0-5 (5)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

128h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.