Cuban regime falls in 2026?
20 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 92¢ · $56K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
22
No 91%
$56.2K
$5.1K
80.9¢ → 91.5¢
+13% since entry · 20 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 92%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- $50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
20 of 22 top traders (91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
20 traders
Top 2 hold 41%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stupid22 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $14.2K | $14.5K | +$295.18 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
 Imbafer | Noavg 65.2¢ | $5.8K | $8.3K | +$2.4K | 56% 238-189 (427) |
 SirHarryOakes | Noavg 77.3¢ | $6.0K | $6.8K | +$806.28 | 84% 215-41 (256) |
 MEPP | Noavg 74.1¢ | $4.7K | $5.5K | +$840 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 87.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.5K | +$134.56 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
 4751346 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.5K | +$216.52 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 86.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$143.26 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 studmuffin6969 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.5K | +$177.72 | 59% 1027-717 (1744) |
 GollumGekko | Noavg 88.3¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$63.25 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 80.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$84.54 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Noavg 88¢ | $974.62 | $1.0K | +$38.76 | 88% 212-28 (240) |
 -Yang- | Noavg 78.4¢ | $885.01 | $920.02 | +$35 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
 manekineko | Noavg 89¢ | $890 | $920 | +$25 | 84% 365-71 (436) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 86.6¢ | $852.36 | $880.65 | +$28.29 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 84.7¢ | $537.44 | $528.77 | +$37.36 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 87¢ | $245.88 | $255.89 | +$8.99 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 70.3¢ | $141.52 | $184 | +$42.48 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 pup1CTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $174.04 | $90 | -$84.04 | 46% 1978-2361 (4339) |
CQ cqsCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $295 | $90 | -$205 | 65% 228-122 (350) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $57.6 | $69 | +$11.03 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
 MisTKy<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $18.4 | +$3.9 | 71% 568-236 (804) |
 StarMaster<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $9.05 | $9.2 | +$0.15 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
Invested
$14,168.38
Value
$14.5K
PnL
+$295.18
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
ImbaferInvested
$5,844.82
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
SirHarryOakesInvested
$5,954.7
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$806.28
Record
84%
215-41 (256)
MEPPInvested
$4,679.99
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$840
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
Invested
$3,328.75
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$134.56
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
4751346Invested
$3,246.46
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$216.52
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$2,609.34
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$143.26
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
studmuffin6969Invested
$2,333.72
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$177.72
Record
59%
1027-717 (1744)
GollumGekkoInvested
$1,889.94
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$63.25
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$1,847.47
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$84.54
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$974.62
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$38.76
Record
88%
212-28 (240)
-Yang-Invested
$885.01
Value
$920.02
PnL
+$35
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
manekinekoInvested
$890
Value
$920
PnL
+$25
Record
84%
365-71 (436)
Invested
$852.36
Value
$880.65
PnL
+$28.29
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$537.44
Value
$528.77
PnL
+$37.36
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$245.88
Value
$255.89
PnL
+$8.99
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$141.52
Value
$184
PnL
+$42.48
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
pup1CTRInvested
$174.04
Value
$90
PnL
-$84.04
Record
46%
1978-2361 (4339)
Invested
$295
Value
$90
PnL
-$205
Record
65%
228-122 (350)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$57.6
Value
$69
PnL
+$11.03
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
MisTKy<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$18.4
PnL
+$3.9
Record
71%
568-236 (804)
StarMaster<$100Invested
$9.05
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.