Consensus PnL -$24K · win rate 78% (194–55, n=249) · was PM monthly #975 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-24.4K
Record
194W / 55L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 249 settled
Batting Avg
76.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#499
Source
PM monthly #975 + pinned
Trades
12,393
Markets
381
Volume
$4.8M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 10 on the consensus side (100%)- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $73K · now 89¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $31K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $10K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (67% of 27)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $4.7K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $4.0K · now 99¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (68% of 68)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $2.2K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $1.8K · now 94¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Yes $1.1K · now 99¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
Specialties
302 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 85¢- Elections
+16 pts
side won 91% of 57 · avg entry 75¢
ROI −32%
- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 94% of 132 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +16%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 93% of 61 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 78% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 89% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 95% of 263)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.