Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 81¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 4

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$134.35

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 80.5¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares18,475

Combined PnL+$140.16

No11 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,386

Combined PnL-$5.82

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$45.39	18% 366-1654 (2020)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.9¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$120.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.2¢	$766.66	$842.38	+$74.72
DO DOLBAEB1CTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$124.13	38% 40-65 (105)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 79¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$20	53% 6697-5893 (12590)
NO notgoodluckCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$50	61% 212-133 (345)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 84.3¢	$964.54	$943.78	-$20.76	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
AL alex20011	Noavg 80.3¢	$720.14	$717.25	-$2.9	48% 3491-3826 (7317)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$433.53	$499.56	+$66.03	38% 20-32 (52)
AN anoin123	Noavg 82.2¢	$299.81	$291.91	-$7.9	47% 476-535 (1011)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 80¢	$256	$256	+$0	39% 175-269 (444)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.6¢	$165.95	$165.97	+$0.02	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 78¢	$146.64	$148.52	+$1.88	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Noavg 80¢	$147.97	$146.15	-$1.82	53% 3729-3242 (6971)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 72¢	$36	$41.25	+$5.25	39% 965-1508 (2473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$38.73	$26.15	-$0.28	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.25	$4.93	+$0.69	72% 1535-585 (2120)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$4,274.22

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$45.39

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

Both legs:

No$3,489.5582.9¢-$120.11

Yes$766.6618.2¢+$74.72

DOLBAEB1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$124.13

Record

38%

40-65 (105)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,580

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

6697-5893 (12590)

notgoodluckCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$50

Record

61%

212-133 (345)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$964.54

Value

$943.78

PnL

-$20.76

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

alex20011

Invested

$720.14

Value

$717.25

PnL

-$2.9

Record

48%

3491-3826 (7317)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$433.53

Value

$499.56

PnL

+$66.03

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

anoin123

Invested

$299.81

Value

$291.91

PnL

-$7.9

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$256

Value

$256

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$165.95

Value

$165.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

sbimbg

Invested

$146.64

Value

$148.52

PnL

+$1.88

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

YouSayUpISayDown

Invested

$147.97

Value

$146.15

PnL

-$1.82

Record

53%

3729-3242 (6971)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.73

Value

$26.15

PnL

-$0.28

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.69

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.