Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 25, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Jan 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$226.87

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 88.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,361

Combined PnL+$194.79

Yes8 traders

Total Value$514.91

Total Shares4,483

Combined PnL+$32.07

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

1120h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Noavg 82¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$127.89	53% 4842-4378 (9220)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 88¢	$362.69	$366.94	+$4.25	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$201.96	$235.79	+$33.84	57% 284-213 (497)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$225.47	$187.45	-$38.02	42% 1530-2142 (3672)
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100	Noavg 76¢	$76	$88.5	+$12.5	43% 483-632 (1115)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$14.99	$55.15	+$40.16	40% 2770-4162 (6932)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$7.65	$14.95	+$7.3	55% 3159-2554 (5713)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$13.18	$14.27	+$45.11	40% 9827-14969 (24796)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$23.52	$13.75	-$9.76	77% 12489-3829 (16318)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$9.43	$9.47	+$5.05	73% 12955-4895 (17850)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$49.99	$5.75	+$0.75	41% 2069-2964 (5033)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2.99	$1.49	-$1.49	52% 6007-5616 (11623)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.28	$0.58	-$0.7	50% 21060-21316 (42376)

takeormake

Invested

$1,489

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$127.89

Record

53%

4842-4378 (9220)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$362.69

Value

$366.94

PnL

+$4.25

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.96

Value

$235.79

PnL

+$33.84

Record

57%

284-213 (497)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$225.47

Value

$187.45

PnL

-$38.02

Record

42%

1530-2142 (3672)

0x53eCc53E7<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

43%

483-632 (1115)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.99

Value

$55.15

PnL

+$40.16

Record

40%

2770-4162 (6932)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$7.3

Record

55%

3159-2554 (5713)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$14.27

PnL

+$45.11

Record

40%

9827-14969 (24796)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.52

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$9.76

Record

77%

12489-3829 (16318)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.47

PnL

+$5.05

Record

73%

12955-4895 (17850)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.99

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

41%

2069-2964 (5033)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.99

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$1.49

Record

52%

6007-5616 (11623)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.7

Record

50%

21060-21316 (42376)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

1120h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.