Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 65¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 4

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$668.01

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 65¢

-9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares24,917

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No5 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares27,393

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 74.9¢	$15.5K	$13.5K	$-2.1K	47% 474-534 (1008)
ChungvicularCTR	Noavg 27.9¢	$4.8K	$6.2K	+$1.2K	46% 49-57 (106)
aenews2CTR	Noavg 22¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$947.61	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 63.8¢	$1.0K	$999.7	+$18.92	58% 705-521 (1226)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Noavg 36.1¢	$606.21	$586.79	-$19.42	61% 203-132 (335)
FrozenParasite	Yesavg 13¢	$7.8	$517.1	+$425.54	55% 463-373 (836)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 58¢	$48.41	$494.33	-$10.18	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GayPrideCTR	Noavg 20.1¢	$267.6	$457.46	+$189.86	49% 357-367 (724)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 80.5¢	$493.82	$386.31	-$95.24	94% 442-28 (470)
nicoco89	Yesavg 64.7¢	$174.59	$169.95	+$0.76	65% 1075-583 (1658)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$22.18	$71.19	+$46.57	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 57.1¢	$7.86	$8.84	+$0.98	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$1.8	+$0.75	50% 697-693 (1390)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$15,518.08

Value

$13.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

ChungvicularCTR

Invested

$4,788.08

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

aenews2CTR

Invested

$1,603.62

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$947.61

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$1,012.51

Value

$999.7

PnL

+$18.92

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Invested

$606.21

Value

$586.79

PnL

-$19.42

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

FrozenParasite

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$517.1

PnL

+$425.54

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$48.41

Value

$494.33

PnL

-$10.18

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

GayPrideCTR

Invested

$267.6

Value

$457.46

PnL

+$189.86

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$493.82

Value

$386.31

PnL

-$95.24

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$174.59

Value

$169.95

PnL

+$0.76

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.18

Value

$71.19

PnL

+$46.57

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.84

PnL

+$0.98

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.9%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$49.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.