Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 21 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

21 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$17.9K

Smart Money Entry

1.2¢ → 2.5¢

+111% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 21 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes21 traders

Total Value$37.4K

Total Shares1,465,233

Combined PnL+$17.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

334 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$4.7K	$13.6K	+$8.8K	69% 987-450 (1437)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$5.3K	$10.8K	+$5.5K	46% 49-57 (106)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$4.0K	$8.6K	+$4.6K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$997.39	$1.2K	+$253.81	68% 2074-957 (3031)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$5.7K	$901.29	$-2.2K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.24	$504.01	+$49.41	42% 71-100 (171)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$269.92	+$189.99	41% 648-925 (1573)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$15	$266.47	+$157.08	53% 906-789 (1695)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$200	$255	+$55	57% 51-39 (90)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$19.55	$199.89	+$1.08	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
IN insideroCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$58.59	$162.15	+$103.57	76% 291-93 (384)
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$68.19	$138.85	+$51.17	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$113.24	$113.24	+$78.55	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$33.56	$109.73	+$76.11	47% 83-94 (177)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$27.56	$76.49	+$48.93	71% 968-396 (1364)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$52	$51	-$1	68% 56-26 (82)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$95.4	$44.45	+$24.59	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
LinaBellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$31.23	$44.24	+$13.04	64% 1197-678 (1875)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$8.64	$8.64	+$6	7% 14-187 (201)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$1.77	-$1.68	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.27	$0.87	+$0.6	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,727.51

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$8.8K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,307.23

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,028.78

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$997.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$253.81

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,694.09

Value

$901.29

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$504.01

PnL

+$49.41

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$269.92

PnL

+$189.99

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$266.47

PnL

+$157.08

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$255

PnL

+$55

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$19.55

Value

$199.89

PnL

+$1.08

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

insideroCTR

Yes

Invested

$58.59

Value

$162.15

PnL

+$103.57

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$68.19

Value

$138.85

PnL

+$51.17

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.24

Value

$113.24

PnL

+$78.55

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$33.56

Value

$109.73

PnL

+$76.11

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$76.49

PnL

+$48.93

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52

Value

$51

PnL

-$1

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.4

Value

$44.45

PnL

+$24.59

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

LinaBellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$44.24

PnL

+$13.04

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.64

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$6

Record

14-187 (201)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,579.48

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$1.68

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.6

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 21 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

334 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2612.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

2712.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.