Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 65¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 4

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$28.1K

Combined PnL

-$896.75

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 64.5¢

-18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares19,625

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares41,923

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 80.3¢	$14.0K	$11.3K	$-2.8K	47% 474-534 (1008)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$4.2K	$6.0K	+$1.5K	46% 49-57 (106)
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$3.3K	$3.8K	+$384.98	62% 45-28 (73)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Yesavg 36.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$45.48	61% 203-132 (335)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 26.3¢	$791.14	$1.1K	+$276.75	40% 704-1061 (1765)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$1.0K	$919.98	-$129.16	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 62¢	$550.21	$572.58	+$22.37	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$249.98	$438.35	+$188.37	49% 357-367 (724)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 74.5¢	$863.7	$394.48	-$416.43	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 80¢	$364.6	$291.59	-$70.73	94% 442-28 (470)
AB ABC12345654321	No	$287.39	$287.39	-$14.88	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yes	$240.41	$240.41	+$87.22	55% 463-373 (836)
nicoco89<$100	Noavg 64.4¢	$94.85	$94.97	+$0.12	65% 1075-583 (1658)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 28.9¢	$39.08	$86.4	+$48	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$30.24	$33.98	+$3.74	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

anoin123

Invested

$14,035.6

Value

$11.3K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,236.74

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Loyalty-CrashCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,281.72

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$384.98

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,520.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$45.48

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$791.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$276.75

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,049.14

Value

$919.98

PnL

-$129.16

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

sbimbg

Invested

$550.21

Value

$572.58

PnL

+$22.37

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$249.98

Value

$438.35

PnL

+$188.37

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$863.7

Value

$394.48

PnL

-$416.43

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

HotDogs

Invested

$364.6

Value

$291.59

PnL

-$70.73

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$287.39

Value

$287.39

PnL

-$14.88

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$240.41

Value

$240.41

PnL

+$87.22

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

nicoco89<$100

Invested

$94.85

Value

$94.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$39.08

Value

$86.4

PnL

+$48

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$30.24

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$3.74

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.4%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.