9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 96¢ · $19K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$18.6K
$1.5K
87¢ → 95.5¢
+10% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 88.9¢ | $6.7K | $7.2K | +$416.67 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 gopfan2 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.5K | +$388.4 | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
ST StraddleSeller | Noavg 75.6¢ | $1.6K | $2.1K | +$435.08 | 60% 174-115 (289) |
CR Crock95 | Noavg 87¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$166 | 57% 255-194 (449) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 94.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$4.68 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 allenzzz | Noavg 92.5¢ | $883.33 | $910.89 | +$26.61 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 85.1¢ | $680.87 | $739.44 | +$76.35 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 mountaindewd | Noavg 89¢ | $445 | $477 | +$32.75 | 54% 344-290 (634) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 87¢ | $87 | $190.8 | +$16.6 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
 touristsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $49.64 | $6.86 | -$42.27 | 66% 427-222 (649) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$6,744.29
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$416.67
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
gopfan2Invested
$3,083.52
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$388.4
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
Invested
$1,644.21
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$435.08
Record
60%
174-115 (289)
Invested
$1,740
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$166
Record
57%
255-194 (449)
Invested
$1,700.8
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$4.68
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
allenzzzInvested
$883.33
Value
$910.89
PnL
+$26.61
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$680.87
Value
$739.44
PnL
+$76.35
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
mountaindewdInvested
$445
Value
$477
PnL
+$32.75
Record
54%
344-290 (634)
StudyPredictionInvested
$87
Value
$190.8
PnL
+$16.6
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
touristsCTR<$100Invested
$49.64
Value
$6.86
PnL
-$42.27
Record
66%
427-222 (649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.