Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 97¢ · $56K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
21
No 95%
$56.1K
$2.5K
92.6¢ → 97¢
+5% since entry · 20 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
20 traders
Top 2 hold 34%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dropper | Noavg 90¢ | $9.0K | $9.7K | +$690 | 71% 1136-463 (1599) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 93.1¢ | $9.5K | $9.4K | +$363.78 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
AV Avamax | Noavg 95.1¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$133.11 | 81% 421-101 (522) |
 GoriIIa | Noavg 94.3¢ | $5.9K | $6.1K | +$161.04 | 73% 229-85 (314) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $5.6K | $5.5K | +$127.68 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 BlondBeast | Noavg 91.2¢ | $4.4K | $4.7K | +$273.53 | 69% 780-347 (1127) |
FL flawfence | Noavg 91.4¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | +$176.1 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
 debased | Noavg 91.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$119.95 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
 wish- | Noavg 94.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$51.75 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
CR Crock95 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$126 | 57% 255-194 (449) |
TE TerreMoto | Noavg 89.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$128.62 | 80% 168-42 (210) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $755.39 | $801.88 | +$45.66 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 Cungly | Noavg 91¢ | $637.49 | $679.41 | +$41.22 | 63% 672-398 (1070) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.1¢ | $514.6 | $519.67 | +$5.07 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Imbafer | Noavg 94.4¢ | $471.97 | $484.97 | +$12.5 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 95.1¢ | $380.4 | $388 | +$7.2 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
KU kukubaja<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $90.1 | $97 | +$6.8 | 84% 516-99 (615) |
TH thoodr<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $47.59 | $48.49 | +$0.87 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 pup1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $63 | $43.4 | -$19.6 | 46% 1978-2361 (4339) |
 Debosnys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $9.7 | +$0.2 | 89% 1868-225 (2093) |
JE Jest55<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.85 | +$0.5 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
DropperInvested
$9,000
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$690
Record
71%
1136-463 (1599)
Invested
$9,450.74
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$363.78
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$6,681.12
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$133.11
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
GoriIIaInvested
$5,941.39
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$161.04
Record
73%
229-85 (314)
elmcap2Invested
$5,630.94
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$127.68
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
BlondBeastInvested
$4,376.23
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$273.53
Record
69%
780-347 (1127)
Invested
$3,200.98
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$176.1
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
debasedInvested
$2,148.46
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$119.95
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
wish-Invested
$1,888.84
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$51.75
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
Invested
$1,811.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$126
Record
57%
255-194 (449)
Invested
$1,507.54
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$128.62
Record
80%
168-42 (210)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$755.39
Value
$801.88
PnL
+$45.66
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
CunglyInvested
$637.49
Value
$679.41
PnL
+$41.22
Record
63%
672-398 (1070)
Invested
$514.6
Value
$519.67
PnL
+$5.07
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
ImbaferInvested
$471.97
Value
$484.97
PnL
+$12.5
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$380.4
Value
$388
PnL
+$7.2
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$90.1
Value
$97
PnL
+$6.8
Record
84%
516-99 (615)
Invested
$47.59
Value
$48.49
PnL
+$0.87
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
pup1CTR<$100Invested
$63
Value
$43.4
PnL
-$19.6
Record
46%
1978-2361 (4339)
Debosnys<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.7
PnL
+$0.2
Record
89%
1868-225 (2093)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.5
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.