Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 98¢ · $103K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$103.3K
$6.4K
91.8¢ → 98¢
+7% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 allenzzz | Noavg 94.6¢ | $40.3K | $41.7K | +$1.4K | 78% 125-36 (161) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 87.9¢ | $25.2K | $28.1K | +$2.9K | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 90¢ | $18.9K | $20.6K | +$1.7K | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 Debosnys | Noavg 97.5¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$22.34 | 89% 1868-225 (2093) |
TR tryingout1 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $4.0K | $4.5K | +$472.61 | 80% 85-21 (106) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 97.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$10.23 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
IN insidero | Noavg 97.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$7.8 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
ME melganis<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $45 | $49 | +$3.98 | 75% 1597-541 (2138) |
 DonationsReceiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $29.12 | $37.32 | +$9.1 | 60% 245-160 (405) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $120 | $20.5 | -$97 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
TR Trump2028<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $5.24 | $5.77 | +$0.53 | 82% 402-89 (491) |
allenzzzInvested
$40,284.63
Value
$41.7K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
Invested
$25,224.85
Value
$28.1K
PnL
+$2.9K
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
elmcap2Invested
$18,920.06
Value
$20.6K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
DebosnysInvested
$5,382.77
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$22.34
Record
89%
1868-225 (2093)
Invested
$4,037.88
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$472.61
Record
80%
85-21 (106)
Invested
$1,569.95
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$10.23
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$1,167.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$7.8
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
Invested
$45
Value
$49
PnL
+$3.98
Record
75%
1597-541 (2138)
DonationsReceiverCTR<$100Invested
$29.12
Value
$37.32
PnL
+$9.1
Record
60%
245-160 (405)
Invested
$120
Value
$20.5
PnL
-$97
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$5.24
Value
$5.77
PnL
+$0.53
Record
82%
402-89 (491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.