Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$86.7

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 0.9¢

-23% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares479,306

Combined PnL+$79.58

No1 trader

Total Value$198.97

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$7.12

Yes — 93%No — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$467.66	40% 704-1061 (1765)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$352.85	$845.04	+$512.69	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$58.86	$627.08	-$146.44	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$196.85	$425	+$228.15	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
RD rdba	Noavg 95.6¢	$191.84	$198.97	+$7.12	60% 131-88 (219)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$60	$143.58	-$109.8	32% 742-1577 (2319)
FA FancyiCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$91.25	$129.62	+$38.55	68% 56-26 (82)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$83.6	+$9.33	41% 648-925 (1573)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$37.75	$37.75	+$3.06	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$33.9	$36.95	+$2.99	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$34.36	+$7.16	68% 2074-957 (3031)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.6	$6.8	+$1.2	66% 955-482 (1437)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$2.38	$2.38	+$0.19	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.23	$1.34	+$0.11	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$0.6	$0.6	+$0.05	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,167.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$467.66

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$352.85

Value

$845.04

PnL

+$512.69

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$58.86

Value

$627.08

PnL

-$146.44

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.85

Value

$425

PnL

+$228.15

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

rdba

Invested

$191.84

Value

$198.97

PnL

+$7.12

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$143.58

PnL

-$109.8

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

FancyiCTR

Yes

Invested

$91.25

Value

$129.62

PnL

+$38.55

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$83.6

PnL

+$9.33

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.75

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$3.06

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.9

Value

$36.95

PnL

+$2.99

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$7.16

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$1.2

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.19

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.11

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5101.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5201.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.