Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 94¢ · $18K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
19
No 58%
$18.0K
-$437.87
91.7¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR browne | Noavg 92¢ | $7.8K | $7.9K | +$129.66 | 71% 173-70 (243) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$108.41 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 cat-dog | Noavg 92.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$42.64 | 77% 102-31 (133) |
88 881112CTR | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $1.3K | $835.29 | -$415.79 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
 GollumGekko | Noavg 90¢ | $734.51 | $762.92 | +$28.41 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 -Yang- | Noavg 86.4¢ | $547.88 | $595.94 | +$51.23 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
 Mr-Krabs | Noavg 88¢ | $432.11 | $461.57 | +$27.01 | 78% 574-165 (739) |
KU kukubaja | Noavg 91¢ | $272.99 | $281.99 | +$10.5 | 84% 516-99 (615) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 92¢ | $222.08 | $226.91 | +$6.03 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 debasedCTR | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $283.11 | $168.17 | -$114.94 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $337.75 | $144.81 | -$178.46 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.2¢ | $115.49 | $116.49 | +$1 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 bosshogCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $125 | $50 | -$75 | 72% 1052-415 (1467) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $77.75 | $47.5 | -$30.25 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $46.68 | $47.38 | +$0.7 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $32.44 | $32.79 | +$0.52 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
 PorxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $25.3 | $21.52 | -$3.78 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 KnureKnumeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $45.34 | $20 | -$25.35 | 48% 400-435 (835) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.81 | $1.39 | -$0.42 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
Invested
$7,771.09
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$129.66
Record
71%
173-70 (243)
Invested
$4,320.83
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$108.41
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
cat-dogInvested
$1,847.61
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$42.64
Record
77%
102-31 (133)
Invested
$1,325.73
Value
$835.29
PnL
-$415.79
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
GollumGekkoInvested
$734.51
Value
$762.92
PnL
+$28.41
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
-Yang-Invested
$547.88
Value
$595.94
PnL
+$51.23
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
Mr-KrabsInvested
$432.11
Value
$461.57
PnL
+$27.01
Record
78%
574-165 (739)
Invested
$272.99
Value
$281.99
PnL
+$10.5
Record
84%
516-99 (615)
Invested
$222.08
Value
$226.91
PnL
+$6.03
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
debasedCTRInvested
$283.11
Value
$168.17
PnL
-$114.94
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$337.75
Value
$144.81
PnL
-$178.46
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
Invested
$115.49
Value
$116.49
PnL
+$1
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
bosshogCTRInvested
$125
Value
$50
PnL
-$75
Record
72%
1052-415 (1467)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$77.75
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$30.25
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$46.68
Value
$47.38
PnL
+$0.7
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$32.44
Value
$32.79
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
PorxCTR<$100Invested
$25.3
Value
$21.52
PnL
-$3.78
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
KnureKnumeCTR<$100Invested
$45.34
Value
$20
PnL
-$25.35
Record
48%
400-435 (835)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$0.42
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.