Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (87%) · Yes at 66¢ · $19K held · ends Dec 1

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 87%

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 66¢

+22% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares29,487

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,133

Combined PnL+$155.18

Yes — 87%No — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigMackyG	Yesavg 51.1¢	$5.8K	$7.0K	+$1.2K	20% 108-423 (531)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 58.2¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$4.93	68% 2074-958 (3032)
eCash	Yesavg 59¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$152.98	68% 331-155 (486)
TR troim	Yesavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$540.01	36% 397-691 (1088)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Noavg 32.1¢	$960.17	$1.1K	+$177.18	50% 415-417 (832)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 59.4¢	$427	$372	-$55	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
0xdc3E831cad	Yesavg 56.2¢	$281.24	$310	+$28.76	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
seal7	Yesavg 53¢	$99.68	$116.6	+$15.99	49% 287-300 (587)
KimchiCapital<$100	Yesavg 56.3¢	$84.5	$93	+$8.5	75% 540-176 (716)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$75.19	$53.2	-$21.99	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
iutwpfal<$100	Yesavg 56.8¢	$38.16	$29.95	+$3.13	57% 412-313 (725)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$51	$29.41	+$24.18	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
GG GGLPL<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$30.34	$28.94	-$1.63	50% 697-693 (1390)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 61.8¢	$21.26	$21.32	+$0.05	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Hannah-Montana<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$6.8	$12.4	+$5.5	67% 209-101 (310)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$5,764.6

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$4,664.74

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$4.93

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$2,985.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$152.98

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,940

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$540.01

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Invested

$960.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$177.18

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$427

Value

$372

PnL

-$55

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

0xdc3E831cad

Yes

Invested

$281.24

Value

$310

PnL

+$28.76

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

seal7

Yes

Invested

$99.68

Value

$116.6

PnL

+$15.99

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

KimchiCapital<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.5

Value

$93

PnL

+$8.5

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$75.19

Value

$53.2

PnL

-$21.99

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

iutwpfal<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.16

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$3.13

Record

57%

412-313 (725)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$51

Value

$29.41

PnL

+$24.18

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

GGLPL<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.34

Value

$28.94

PnL

-$1.63

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.26

Value

$21.32

PnL

+$0.05

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Hannah-Montana<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$5.5

Record

67%

209-101 (310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.9%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.