Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

9 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (35%) · No at 99¢ · $207K held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 35%

Total Value

$207.4K

Combined PnL

$49.6K

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 98.9¢

+113% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 26 top traders (35%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$205.7K

Total Shares208,309

Combined PnL+$107.0K

Yes17 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares144,162

Combined PnL$-57.4K

No — 35%Yes — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

727h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

35% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 72% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IZ izcikagamoji	Noavg 32.5¢	$31.3K	$94.9K	+$63.6K	— 1-0 (1)
basedcigany	Noavg 98.1¢	$38.0K	$38.3K	+$158.26	58% 218-159 (377)
Gohst	Noavg 19¢	$6.9K	$34.2K	+$27.2K	49% 738-770 (1508)
QubiBg	Noavg 30.4¢	$1.0K	$14.5K	+$10.0K	— 2-0 (2)
archaic	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.3K	$9.4K	+$157.66	85% 1906-339 (2245)
WordleAddict	Noavg 42.5¢	$2.6K	$6.2K	+$3.5K	61% 941-614 (1555)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 67¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$325.54	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
MA Maki777	Noavg 31.1¢	$328.06	$2.4K	+$1.6K	38% 9-15 (24)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$20.1K	$879.13	$-19.2K	46% 271-319 (590)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 33.4¢	$162.24	$476.56	+$314.31	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
cs2.quantCTR	Yesavg 31.6¢	$5.5K	$174.39	$-5.3K	55% 85-69 (154)
timebrotimeCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$9.8K	$163.9	$-9.7K	67% 893-435 (1328)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 60¢	$7.3K	$122.95	$-7.2K	54% 344-290 (634)
seal7CTR	Yesavg 68.6¢	$7.6K	$110.41	$-7.4K	49% 287-300 (587)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$2.8K	$73.83	$-2.8K	35% 35-64 (99)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Yesavg 66.7¢	$3.5K	$67.38	$-3.4K	58% 182-132 (314)
KO korandnikCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$88.77	$37.43	-$51.34	73% 85-31 (116)
SE segment3CTR	Yesavg 53.9¢	$1.5K	$27.5	$-1.4K	55% 11-9 (20)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$310.47	$7.03	-$300.27	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 66.5¢	$447.44	$6.72	-$438.7	56% 836-644 (1480)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Yesavg 65.3¢	$21.21	$5.24	-$15.87	50% 7969-8009 (15978)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 60.8¢	$3.96	$2.65	-$1.31	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
4751346CTR	Yesavg 69.8¢	$137.6	$2	-$135.6	72% 1257-483 (1740)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 66.5¢	$99.98	$1.48	-$98.5	50% 356-357 (713)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 59.9¢	$59.9	$1	-$58.45	49% 1830-1896 (3726)

izcikagamoji

Invested

$31,277.12

Value

$94.9K

PnL

+$63.6K

Record

—

1-0 (1)

basedcigany

Invested

$38,048.82

Value

$38.3K

PnL

+$158.26

Record

58%

218-159 (377)

Gohst

Invested

$6,885.23

Value

$34.2K

PnL

+$27.2K

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

QubiBg

Invested

$1,006.85

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

archaic

Invested

$9,260.97

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$157.66

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

WordleAddict

Invested

$2,646.08

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$5,019.9

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$325.54

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

Maki777

Invested

$328.06

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

38%

9-15 (24)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$20,062.7

Value

$879.13

PnL

$-19.2K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$162.24

Value

$476.56

PnL

+$314.31

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

cs2.quantCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,504.28

Value

$174.39

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

55%

85-69 (154)

timebrotimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,826.1

Value

$163.9

PnL

$-9.7K

Record

67%

893-435 (1328)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,321.92

Value

$122.95

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

seal7CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,572.95

Value

$110.41

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,839.75

Value

$73.83

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,458.63

Value

$67.38

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

korandnikCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.77

Value

$37.43

PnL

-$51.34

Record

73%

85-31 (116)

segment3CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,483.26

Value

$27.5

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$310.47

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$300.27

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$447.44

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$438.7

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

RLWGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.21

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$15.87

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$1.31

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

4751346CTR

Yes

Invested

$137.6

Value

PnL

-$135.6

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.98

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$98.5

Record

50%

356-357 (713)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.9

Value

PnL

-$58.45

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 26 top traders (35%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

727h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

35% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 72% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.