Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (76%) · Yes at 54¢ · $87K held · ends Dec 31

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 76%

Total Value

$87.0K

Combined PnL

$20.9K

Smart Money Entry

37.1¢ → 54¢

+46% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 54%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$78.4K

Total Shares150,545

Combined PnL+$23.2K

No5 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares17,948

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Yes — 76%No — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 30%

Freshness

Late

1581h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 88% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 35.8¢	$8.1K	$11.8K	+$3.8K	50% 415-417 (832)
The-Joker	Yesavg 41¢	$9.2K	$11.6K	+$2.6K	68% 1507-701 (2208)
BigMackyG	Yesavg 31.6¢	$7.0K	$11.6K	+$4.7K	20% 108-423 (531)
eCash	Yesavg 37.7¢	$7.3K	$10.1K	+$2.9K	68% 331-155 (486)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 28.4¢	$4.6K	$8.5K	+$3.9K	47% 476-535 (1011)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 40.1¢	$6.2K	$8.1K	+$1.9K	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
iutwpfalCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$22.6	$5.8K	$-1.5K	57% 412-313 (725)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 44.4¢	$4.4K	$5.2K	+$815.61	68% 2074-958 (3032)
TR troim	Yesavg 46.6¢	$3.7K	$4.2K	+$472.77	36% 397-691 (1088)
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 44.3¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$302.31	57% 1114-837 (1951)
mr.ozi	Yesavg 33¢	$990	$1.6K	+$585	68% 1240-582 (1822)
PI pieped	Yesavg 39.6¢	$383.52	$1.3K	+$316.87	42% 71-100 (171)
KI KiruaTrading	Yesavg 24.4¢	$566.08	$1.2K	+$654.01	57% 271-203 (474)
Hannah-MontanaCTR	Noavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$238.07	67% 209-101 (310)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 56.5¢	$1.3K	$990.45	-$254.87	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 48.2¢	$727.5	$780	+$52.5	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 60.6¢	$532.02	$428.89	-$103.14	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
tjaCTR	Noavg 63.5¢	$421.94	$331.15	-$93.91	73% 867-323 (1190)
Car	Yesavg 31.8¢	$151.47	$247.8	+$98.72	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 32.3¢	$163.55	$242.99	+$79.44	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$98.01	$79.22	+$66.36	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$8,125.88

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$9,156.48

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$7,033.2

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$7,296.26

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$4,622.39

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$6,176.94

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

iutwpfalCTR

Invested

$22.6

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

412-313 (725)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$4,447.75

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$815.61

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

troim

Yes

Invested

$3,727.2

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$472.77

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$1,638.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$302.31

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

mr.ozi

Yes

Invested

$990

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$585

Record

68%

1240-582 (1822)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$383.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$316.87

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

KiruaTrading

Yes

Invested

$566.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$654.01

Record

57%

271-203 (474)

Hannah-MontanaCTR

Invested

$1,250.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$238.07

Record

67%

209-101 (310)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$1,299.15

Value

$990.45

PnL

-$254.87

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$727.5

Value

$780

PnL

+$52.5

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$532.02

Value

$428.89

PnL

-$103.14

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

tjaCTR

Invested

$421.94

Value

$331.15

PnL

-$93.91

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

Car

Yes

Invested

$151.47

Value

$247.8

PnL

+$98.72

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$163.55

Value

$242.99

PnL

+$79.44

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.01

Value

$79.22

PnL

+$66.36

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 54%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 30%

Freshness

Late

1581h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 88% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.0%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$78.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

178.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.