Consensus PnL $52K · win rate 53% (301–263, n=564) · PM monthly #837 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$51.9K
Record
301W / 263L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 564 settled
Batting Avg
42.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1052
Source
PM monthly #837
Record (90 d)
74/125 · 59%
Trades
8,563
Markets
760
Volume
$1.9M
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Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 46 on the consensus side (65%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $37K · now 79¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (63% of 125)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $14K · now 94¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (46% of 28)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $11K · now 99¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (85% of 72)
- Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No $4.1K · now 73¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (63% of 16)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $3.9K · now 39¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (70% of 78)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $3.8K · now 97¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (83% of 76)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $3.8K · now 85¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (53% of 32)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $3.4K · now 67¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (71% of 45)
Specialties
588 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 53¢- Crypto
+25 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +33%
- Elections
+6 pts
side won 61% of 103 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +11%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 60% of 43 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 53% of 183 at an average 53¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 9% of 172)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 47% of 85)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 60% of 121)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 92% of 210)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.