Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 36¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 1

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.9K

Combined PnL

-$48.9

Smart Money Entry

36.4¢ → 35.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares39,455

Combined PnL-$84.37

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,319

Combined PnL+$35.47

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR	Noavg 36¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$61.64	47% 209-240 (449)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 36.8¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$311.61	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.8¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$377.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$933.12	$998.73	+$65.61
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 36.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$26.76	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$4.5K	$2.7K	-$36.88	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 36.5¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$199.68	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.5¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$255.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.9¢	$786.25	$842.34	+$56.09
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 36¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$97.4	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$17.58	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
└ No leg	Noavg 37¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$22.91
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$671.58	$676.91	+$5.33
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 37¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$52.6	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 62.5¢	$776.04	$788.04	+$11.99	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 63¢	$316.26	$318.77	+$2.51	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
HRTrading	Yesavg 63.9¢	$277.96	$297.07	+$19.11	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 35.8¢	$286	$284	-$2	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 37¢	$153.92	$151.84	-$2.08	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 59.2¢	$51.89	$53.41	+$1.52	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$49.6	$50	+$0.4	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$34.92	$35.41	+$0.48	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$7.5	$7.44	-$0.06	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$7.6	$7.3	-$0.3	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR

Invested

$4,438.08

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$61.64

Record

47%

209-240 (449)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$3,552.03

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$311.61

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Both legs:

No$2,618.9136.8¢-$377.22

Yes$933.1264¢+$65.61

CannaeCTR

Invested

$3,015.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$26.76

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$4,543.17

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$36.88

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,652.25

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$199.68

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

No$1,86636.5¢-$255.77

Yes$786.2563.9¢+$56.09

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$2,337.69

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$97.4

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$2,366.66

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$17.58

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Both legs:

No$1,695.0837¢-$22.91

Yes$671.5863¢+$5.33

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,331.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$52.6

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$776.04

Value

$788.04

PnL

+$11.99

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$316.26

Value

$318.77

PnL

+$2.51

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$277.96

Value

$297.07

PnL

+$19.11

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$286

Value

$284

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$153.92

Value

$151.84

PnL

-$2.08

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.89

Value

$53.41

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.6

Value

$50

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Invested

$34.92

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.