Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 73¢ · $24K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 73¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares26,921

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares16,040

Combined PnL$-3.3K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

1259h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 67.7¢	$7.1K	$7.7K	+$573.1	73% 350-129 (479)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Noavg 67.9¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$286.78	64% 85-47 (132)
yen4u	Noavg 68.1¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$187.65	86% 809-136 (945)
eCash	Noavg 79.5¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$149.15	68% 331-155 (486)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 44.7¢	$2.7K	$1.3K	$-1.5K	61% 1200-768 (1968)
seal7CTR	Yesavg 67.7¢	$3.2K	$1.2K	$-1.9K	49% 287-300 (587)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 75.7¢	$763.58	$741.48	-$22.11	39% 175-269 (444)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 67¢	$515.77	$540.47	+$24.7	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$535.96	$523.64	-$12.32	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.9¢	$289.84	$312.39	+$22.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.2¢	$245.09	$211.25	-$34.87
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$439.99	$519.99	+$100	36% 397-691 (1088)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$514.45	$451.74	-$62.71	35% 35-65 (100)
WordleAddictCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$333.21	$393.21	+$60	61% 941-614 (1555)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 67.1¢	$382.51	$355.01	-$27.5	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 62¢	$310	$355	+$62.5	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 72.2¢	$335.51	$345.24	+$9.73	65% 527-282 (809)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$194.52	$251.45	+$56.93	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
cambridgeisaac	Noavg 44.1¢	$122.22	$195.11	+$72.88	57% 1114-837 (1951)
TBill1CTR	Yesavg 62.6¢	$133.28	$55.38	-$78.97	45% 154-188 (342)
Xeny<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$41.08	$41.18	+$1.26	60% 978-662 (1640)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$43.02	$40.96	-$2.06	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 66.1¢	$68	$26	-$42	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$6.6	$5.2	-$1.5	50% 357-357 (714)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$7,090.79

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$573.1

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Invested

$3,852.95

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$286.78

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

yen4u

Invested

$2,596.26

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$187.65

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

eCash

Invested

$2,354.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$149.15

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,730.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

seal7CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,154.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$763.58

Value

$741.48

PnL

-$22.11

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$515.77

Value

$540.47

PnL

+$24.7

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$535.96

Value

$523.64

PnL

-$12.32

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$289.8465.9¢+$22.55

Yes$245.0930.2¢-$34.87

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$439.99

Value

$519.99

PnL

+$100

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$514.45

Value

$451.74

PnL

-$62.71

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

WordleAddictCTR

Yes

Invested

$333.21

Value

$393.21

PnL

+$60

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$382.51

Value

$355.01

PnL

-$27.5

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$310

Value

$355

PnL

+$62.5

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

melonmanm

Invested

$335.51

Value

$345.24

PnL

+$9.73

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$194.52

Value

$251.45

PnL

+$56.93

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

cambridgeisaac

Invested

$122.22

Value

$195.11

PnL

+$72.88

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

TBill1CTR

Yes

Invested

$133.28

Value

$55.38

PnL

-$78.97

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

Xeny<$100

Invested

$41.08

Value

$41.18

PnL

+$1.26

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

$40.96

PnL

-$2.06

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68

Value

$26

PnL

-$42

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

1259h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.8%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.