Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$20.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 98.8¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares20,652

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$59.23

Total Shares4,738

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

730h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Noavg 90.9¢	$8.7K	$9.5K	+$748.46	64% 85-47 (132)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 79.6¢	$6.9K	$8.5K	+$1.7K	73% 350-129 (479)
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 95¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$88.5	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
occasionalAwareness<$100	Noavg 75¢	$60	$79	+$19	52% 284-262 (546)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$612.35	$35.22	-$577.13	36% 190-333 (523)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$554.82	$15.23	-$539.59	58% 928-661 (1589)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$10.69	$10.83	+$0.14	50% 357-357 (714)
CA cashyCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$98.55	$4.58	-$93.97	71% 611-251 (862)
TBill1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$12.29	$2.95	-$8.98	45% 154-188 (342)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$19	$1.25	-$17.75	50% 1537-1513 (3050)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Invested

$8,714.34

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$748.46

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$6,856.4

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$2,241.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$88.5

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

occasionalAwareness<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$79

PnL

+$19

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$612.35

Value

$35.22

PnL

-$577.13

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$554.82

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$539.59

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$10.83

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

cashyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.55

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$93.97

Record

71%

611-251 (862)

TBill1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.29

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$8.98

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$17.75

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

730h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.