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6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

-$429.23

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 82.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares10,421

Combined PnL+$597.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares16,345

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

3361h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Folletin	Noavg 71.4¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$502.96	69% 423-188 (611)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 82.2¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$6.79	89% 4653-547 (5200)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 80.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$79.99	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 24.1¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$566.67	61% 1200-768 (1968)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$1.2K	$875	-$374.99	36% 397-691 (1088)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 68.5¢	$684.99	$824.98	+$140	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$475.49	$388.04	-$87.45	36% 190-333 (523)
probability	Noavg 69.8¢	$146.41	$172.95	+$26.54	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$85	$87.5	+$2.5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$43.62	$44.7	+$1.08	42% 5284-7234 (12518)

Folletin

Invested

$3,219.82

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$502.96

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

nonkenny90

Invested

$2,175.33

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$6.79

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,730.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$79.99

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,076.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$566.67

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,249.99

Value

$875

PnL

-$374.99

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

sbimbg

Invested

$684.99

Value

$824.98

PnL

+$140

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$475.49

Value

$388.04

PnL

-$87.45

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

probability

Invested

$146.41

Value

$172.95

PnL

+$26.54

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$85

Value

$87.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$43.62

Value

$44.7

PnL

+$1.08

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

3361h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.1%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.