Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 12¢ · $28K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

8.8¢ → 11.5¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares235,164

Combined PnL+$6.1K

No4 traders

Total Value$699.91

Total Shares791

Combined PnL+$84.33

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

140 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$15.4K	$20.3K	+$4.9K	43% 561-738 (1299)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$216.34	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$171.39	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 7¢	$933.06	$1.5K	+$600.4	47% 217-240 (457)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$525.95	$534.75	+$8.8	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 87¢	$483.37	$491.71	+$8.33	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.29	$207.15	+$148.54	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 51¢	$104.97	$182.01	+$77.03	69% 156-69 (225)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$61.56	$61.56	+$45.34	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$32	$46	+$14	66% 1107-565 (1672)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 92¢	$22.63	$21.77	-$0.86	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.43	-$0.18	73% 41-15 (56)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$15,370.38

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,493.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$216.34

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,477.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$171.39

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$933.06

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$600.4

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$525.95

Value

$534.75

PnL

+$8.8

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$483.37

Value

$491.71

PnL

+$8.33

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.29

Value

$207.15

PnL

+$148.54

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$104.97

Value

$182.01

PnL

+$77.03

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.56

Value

$61.56

PnL

+$45.34

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$46

PnL

+$14

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$22.63

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$0.86

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.18

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

140 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.