Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 32¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 30

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$614.8

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 32¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,373

Combined PnL+$276.85

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,343

Combined PnL-$891.65

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

1235h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 63.9¢	$977.56	$1.0K	+$63.35	69% 156-69 (225)
Car	Yesavg 49.1¢	$679.48	$855.23	+$175.75	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 64.3¢	$1.3K	$646.47	-$653.53	56% 836-645 (1481)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 62¢	$521.31	$580.16	+$50.45	36% 190-333 (523)
MEPPCTR	Noavg 34.7¢	$523.54	$483.46	-$40.08	64% 633-352 (985)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Noavg 38¢	$531.99	$447.99	-$84	60% 474-313 (787)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Yesavg 59.2¢	$282.18	$312.08	+$39.91	51% 527-509 (1036)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 62.4¢	$175.52	$175.66	+$0.14	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
BR browneCTR	Noavg 60.5¢	$189	$99.95	-$89.05	71% 173-70 (243)
Relaccsed<$100	Yesavg 73.8¢	$56.55	$52.9	-$4.43	56% 1213-967 (2180)
88 881112CTR<$100	Noavg 79¢	$39.5	$16	-$23.5	38% 567-944 (1511)
BlondBeastCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$17.5	$16	-$1.5	69% 780-347 (1127)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438	Yesavg 62.7¢	$534.57	$12.1	-$48.32	50% 357-357 (714)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$977.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$63.35

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Car

Yes

Invested

$679.48

Value

$855.23

PnL

+$175.75

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$1,300

Value

$646.47

PnL

-$653.53

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$521.31

Value

$580.16

PnL

+$50.45

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

MEPPCTR

Invested

$523.54

Value

$483.46

PnL

-$40.08

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

JoeBlack01CTR

Invested

$531.99

Value

$447.99

PnL

-$84

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Yes

Invested

$282.18

Value

$312.08

PnL

+$39.91

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$175.52

Value

$175.66

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

browneCTR

Invested

$189

Value

$99.95

PnL

-$89.05

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

Relaccsed<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.55

Value

$52.9

PnL

-$4.43

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

881112CTR<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

$16

PnL

-$23.5

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

BlondBeastCTR<$100

Invested

$17.5

Value

$16

PnL

-$1.5

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438

Yes

Invested

$534.57

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$48.32

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

1235h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.0%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$203.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

303.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.