Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Up (54%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$26.35

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 26 top traders (54%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,490

Combined PnL+$165.74

Down12 traders

Total Value$437.06

Total Shares2,555

Combined PnL-$192.08

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.6¢	$914.21	$923.47	+$9.26	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 66.7¢	$357.94	$516.37	+$158.43	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.2¢	$300.07	$292.25	-$7.82	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 74.8¢	$255.32	$228.43	-$26.89	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 66.4¢	$134.66	$181.42	+$46.77	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 27.5¢	$210.16	$159.05	-$51.11	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 37.7¢	$94.26	$123.75	+$29.49	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71¢	$101.83	$75.53	-$26.3	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 32.1¢	$78.85	$67.53	-$11.33	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 81.1¢	$53.13	$63.25	+$10.13	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$45.56	$57.38	+$11.82	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$29.98	$42.59	+$12.61	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$69.07	$42.05	-$27.02	51% 17198-16705 (33903)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 89¢	$36.25	$25.7	-$10.55	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$37.12	$25	-$12.12	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$22.05	$19.5	-$2.55	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 52¢	$16.25	$15.78	-$0.47	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$11.78	$8.99	-$2.79	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$11.37	$8.62	-$2.75	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
PA Parad0X<$100	Upavg 56¢	$4.48	$8	+$3.52	56% 2301-1795 (4096)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 89¢	$8.03	$5.38	-$2.64	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.4¢	$21.42	$4.41	-$17.02	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 29.3¢	$3.84	$2.36	-$1.48	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$2.65	$0.66	-$1.99	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 35.4¢	$89.86	$0.13	-$89.73	56% 8353-6485 (14838)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$914.21

Value

$923.47

PnL

+$9.26

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$357.94

Value

$516.37

PnL

+$158.43

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

ply-pm0

Invested

$300.07

Value

$292.25

PnL

-$7.82

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$255.32

Value

$228.43

PnL

-$26.89

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$134.66

Value

$181.42

PnL

+$46.77

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$210.16

Value

$159.05

PnL

-$51.11

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$94.26

Value

$123.75

PnL

+$29.49

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$101.83

Value

$75.53

PnL

-$26.3

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.85

Value

$67.53

PnL

-$11.33

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$53.13

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$10.13

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$45.56

Value

$57.38

PnL

+$11.82

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$29.98

Value

$42.59

PnL

+$12.61

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$69.07

Value

$42.05

PnL

-$27.02

Record

51%

17198-16705 (33903)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$36.25

Value

$25.7

PnL

-$10.55

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.12

Value

$25

PnL

-$12.12

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.05

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$16.25

Value

$15.78

PnL

-$0.47

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.78

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$2.79

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.37

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$2.75

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Parad0X<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

PnL

+$3.52

Record

56%

2301-1795 (4096)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$2.64

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.42

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$17.02

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.84

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$1.48

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$1.99

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.86

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$89.73

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 26 top traders (54%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.