Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

19 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$383.47

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,306

Combined PnL+$350.42

Up7 traders

Total Value$263.32

Total Shares2,149

Combined PnL-$733.88

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 81.9¢	$845.05	$924.66	+$79.61	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.5¢	$752.34	$912.27	+$159.93	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.6¢	$453.32	$442.87	-$10.45	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 59.9¢	$211.93	$353.39	+$141.46	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 65¢	$296.79	$300.3	+$3.51	51% 17198-16705 (33903)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 84.6¢	$350.92	$270.35	-$80.57	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 78.3¢	$205.79	$256.06	+$50.27	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 38.1¢	$344.58	$193.86	-$150.72	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$191.78	$191.87	+$0.1	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
LI Little-big	Downavg 62.7¢	$157	$123.93	-$33.06	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$98.69	$93.02	-$5.67	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 82.1¢	$53.1	$63.3	+$10.2	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 89.2¢	$59.89	$62.81	+$2.92	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 76.1¢	$31.32	$40.12	+$8.8	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 42¢	$21.41	$39.41	+$18	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$30.9	$27.71	-$3.18	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 87.4¢	$36.86	$27.49	+$2.39	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$26.57	$23.6	-$2.97	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 96¢	$11.76	$11.94	+$0.18	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$35.78	$11.57	-$24.21	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.9	+$0.1	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 44¢	$6.29	$8.64	+$2.36	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5.7	$6.05	+$0.35	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 15.7¢	$16.45	$4.73	-$11.73	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$2.5	$1.25	-$1.25	52% 804-728 (1532)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$845.05

Value

$924.66

PnL

+$79.61

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$752.34

Value

$912.27

PnL

+$159.93

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$453.32

Value

$442.87

PnL

-$10.45

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$211.93

Value

$353.39

PnL

+$141.46

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$296.79

Value

$300.3

PnL

+$3.51

Record

51%

17198-16705 (33903)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$350.92

Value

$270.35

PnL

-$80.57

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$205.79

Value

$256.06

PnL

+$50.27

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$344.58

Value

$193.86

PnL

-$150.72

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$191.78

Value

$191.87

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$157

Value

$123.93

PnL

-$33.06

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$98.69

Value

$93.02

PnL

-$5.67

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$53.1

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$10.2

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$59.89

Value

$62.81

PnL

+$2.92

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$31.32

Value

$40.12

PnL

+$8.8

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$21.41

Value

$39.41

PnL

+$18

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$30.9

Value

$27.71

PnL

-$3.18

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$36.86

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$2.39

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$26.57

Value

$23.6

PnL

-$2.97

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$11.76

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$0.18

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$35.78

Value

$11.57

PnL

-$24.21

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$6.29

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$2.36

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$0.35

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$11.73

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.