Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (61%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$0.81

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,792

Combined PnL+$87.86

Up7 traders

Total Value$136.52

Total Shares708

Combined PnL-$88.67

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.8¢	$888.7	$893.88	+$5.18	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 63.5¢	$280.8	$353.68	+$72.88	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$262.5	$255.68	-$6.82	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$166.05	$199.99	+$33.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$96.45	$55.69	-$40.77
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 72.9¢	$156.37	$162.85	+$6.47	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
ohioism	Downavg 85.7¢	$99.55	$109.69	+$10.14	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$47.5	$49.5	+$2	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$48.08	$38.37	+$1.9	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 9.8¢	$18.93	$35.79	+$16.85	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 98¢	$36.07	$33.68	-$2.39	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$33.91	$30.3	-$3.61	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 30.6¢	$68.15	$26.91	-$41.24	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$31.37	$25.37	-$6	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$45.07	$23.02	-$22.05	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$33	$19	-$14	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 31.8¢	$41.95	$16.69	-$25.26	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 19.1¢	$15.93	$15.12	-$0.82	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 53¢	$3.3	$4.45	+$1.15	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69¢	$3.44	$3.57	+$0.12	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$2.15	$0.01	-$2.15	62% 44284-27268 (71552)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$888.7

Value

$893.88

PnL

+$5.18

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$280.8

Value

$353.68

PnL

+$72.88

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$262.5

Value

$255.68

PnL

-$6.82

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Down$166.0567.7¢+$33.94

Up$96.4532¢-$40.77

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$156.37

Value

$162.85

PnL

+$6.47

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$99.55

Value

$109.69

PnL

+$10.14

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$47.5

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$48.08

Value

$38.37

PnL

+$1.9

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$18.93

Value

$35.79

PnL

+$16.85

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$36.07

Value

$33.68

PnL

-$2.39

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$33.91

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$3.61

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$68.15

Value

$26.91

PnL

-$41.24

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$31.37

Value

$25.37

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$45.07

Value

$23.02

PnL

-$22.05

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$19

PnL

-$14

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$41.95

Value

$16.69

PnL

-$25.26

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$15.93

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$0.82

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$1.15

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.12

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.15

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.