Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 33% (1594–3188, n=4782) · PM monthly #694 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.6K
Record
1594W / 3188L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 4782 settled
Batting Avg
42.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1583
Source
PM monthly #694
Record (90 d)
1046/1692 · 62%
Trades
763
Markets
6,833
Volume
$303.0K
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Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 19 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Person D be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $4.1K · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Person E be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $4.1K · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Person F be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $4.1K · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Person G be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $4.1K · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $129 · now 26¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 32)
- Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $63 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 16)
- Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $23 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 17)
- Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming $6 · now 100¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (70% of 21)
Specialties
1,459 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+5 pts
side won 63% of 71 · avg entry 59¢
ROI −3%
- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 55% of 80 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +8%
- Tech
+5 pts
side won 57% of 49 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 40% of 78 at an average 47¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 7% of 303)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 45% of 164)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 62% of 267)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 90% of 725)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.