Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $803 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$802.5

Combined PnL

-$609.63

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.1¢

-69% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$761.14

Total Shares381,681

Combined PnL-$609.78

No1 trader

Total Value$41.37

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.14

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

186 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$492.69	$444.47	-$48.22	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$513.7	$214.09	-$299.61	41% 166-240 (406)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$162.11	$52	-$110.11	67% 751-378 (1129)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$41.22	$41.37	+$0.14	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$21.17	-$64.05	41% 648-925 (1573)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$20	$20	-$5	57% 51-39 (90)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$6.67	-$28.08	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.31	$2.08	-$3.23	68% 2074-957 (3031)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.5	$0.5	-$1.58	7% 14-187 (201)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.15	-$49.89	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$492.69

Value

$444.47

PnL

-$48.22

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$513.7

Value

$214.09

PnL

-$299.61

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$162.11

Value

$52

PnL

-$110.11

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.22

Value

$41.37

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$64.05

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

-$5

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$28.08

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$3.23

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.58

Record

14-187 (201)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,572.92

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$49.89

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

186 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.