Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $624 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$624

Combined PnL

-$748.79

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.3¢

-68% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$624

Total Shares224,310

Combined PnL-$748.79

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

212 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$547.31	$228.43	-$318.88	41% 166-240 (406)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$251.65	$189.93	-$61.73	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$152.68	$152.68	-$269.47	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$50.55	$16.2	-$34.43	47% 83-94 (177)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$68.73	$13.28	-$55.45	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.67	$9.99	+$8.33	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1	$6	+$5	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$865.36	$4.65	-$14.53	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$10.45	$2.73	-$7.73	57% 1113-837 (1950)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.12	+$0.1	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$547.31

Value

$228.43

PnL

-$318.88

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$251.65

Value

$189.93

PnL

-$61.73

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.68

Value

$152.68

PnL

-$269.47

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.55

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$34.43

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.73

Value

$13.28

PnL

-$55.45

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$8.33

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$865.36

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$14.53

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.45

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$7.73

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,113.49

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.1

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

212 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.