Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$838.74

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 0.4¢

-68% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares303,969

Combined PnL-$838.74

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

49 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$1.1K	$626.72	-$476.66	41% 166-240 (406)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$242.69	$242.69	-$48.9	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$304.66	$179.06	-$125.61	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$22.68	-$11.93	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$23.41	$17.33	-$6.08	71% 968-396 (1364)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$15.57	-$19.18	47% 83-94 (177)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$76.35	$8.59	-$128.96	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$25.76	$7.34	-$18.43	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$1.68	$1.68	-$1.81	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.25	$1.25	-$1.34	7% 14-187 (201)
HO HourglassCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.84	+$0.74	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
archaicCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.91	$0.29	-$0.62	85% 1906-339 (2245)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	+$0.07	86% 3499-571 (4070)
siickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.02	57% 767-580 (1347)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,103.38

Value

$626.72

PnL

-$476.66

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$242.69

Value

$242.69

PnL

-$48.9

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$304.66

Value

$179.06

PnL

-$125.61

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$11.93

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.41

Value

$17.33

PnL

-$6.08

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$19.18

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$76.35

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$128.96

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.76

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$18.43

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$1.81

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$1.34

Record

14-187 (201)

HourglassCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,087.73

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.74

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

archaicCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.62

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

siickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

49 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.