Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $285 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$284.74

Combined PnL

-$296.74

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.3¢

-64% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$284.74

Total Shares95,656

Combined PnL-$296.74

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

203 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$352.95	$228.84	-$124.11	41% 166-240 (406)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$31.76	-$53.46	41% 648-925 (1573)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$11.12	-$23.63	47% 83-94 (177)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$20.05	$6.02	-$15.03	71% 968-396 (1364)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.31	$3.13	-$2.18	68% 2074-957 (3031)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.88	$1.32	+$0.22	40% 704-1061 (1765)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$1.5K	$1.2	-$7.02	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.89	$0.89	-$1.58	7% 14-187 (201)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.98	$0.36	-$0.61	39% 965-1508 (2473)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.11	-$69.33	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.95

Value

$228.84

PnL

-$124.11

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$31.76

PnL

-$53.46

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$11.12

PnL

-$23.63

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.05

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$15.03

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$2.18

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.22

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$7.02

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$1.58

Record

14-187 (201)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.61

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,612.92

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$69.33

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

203 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.