Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.1¢

-91% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares873,965

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	$-3.5K	67% 751-378 (1129)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$127.75	$516.51	-$450.91	41% 166-240 (406)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$173.72	$177.31	-$292.39	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$124.97	$124.97	-$116.65	66% 944-496 (1440)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$118.11	-$103.11	64% 154-88 (242)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$51.27	$51.27	-$47.29	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$44.45	-$42.27	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$23.74	-$22.91	26% 351-985 (1336)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$20.65	-$24.91	68% 2074-957 (3031)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$11.58	$13.15	+$1.57	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.05	$7.05	-$6.78	80% 2709-698 (3407)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.72	$0.72	-$0.67	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.43	$0.28	-$4.15	45% 1905-2348 (4253)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,438.18

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.75

Value

$516.51

PnL

-$450.91

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.72

Value

$177.31

PnL

-$292.39

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.97

Value

$124.97

PnL

-$116.65

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$118.11

PnL

-$103.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.27

Value

$51.27

PnL

-$47.29

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$44.45

PnL

-$42.27

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$23.74

PnL

-$22.91

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$24.91

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$1.57

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$6.78

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.67

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$4.15

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.