Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 60% (80–54, n=134) · was PM monthly #851 · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.3K
Record
80W / 54L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 134 settled
Batting Avg
63.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1173
Source
PM monthly #851
Trades
231
Markets
216
Volume
$860.5K
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 33 on the consensus side (85%)- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $11K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $9.8K · now 86¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $9.5K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $7.9K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $6.7K · now 26¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (64% of 23)
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $6.6K · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $5.4K · now 81¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (69% of 39)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $5.3K · now 44¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
Specialties
119 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 57¢- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 61% of 79 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 47% of 15 at an average 57¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI +22%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 4% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 45% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 79% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 98% of 48)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.