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10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $37K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 97.4¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$37.4K

Total Shares38,465

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Talophex	Noavg 92.6¢	$19.3K	$20.1K	+$784.49	91% 929-95 (1024)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 95.6¢	$10.3K	$10.5K	+$176.67	94% 442-28 (470)
ST StraddleSeller	Noavg 84¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$369.68	60% 174-115 (289)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 87.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$179.75	88% 2229-292 (2521)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 88.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$45.98	66% 1107-565 (1672)
57 57284910	Noavg 97¢	$244.38	$245.07	+$0.56	100% 23-0 (23)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100	No	$99.35	$99.35	+$3.28	47% 85-95 (180)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$95.8	$97.25	+$1.4	69% 987-450 (1437)
TheKinginYellow<$100	Noavg 93¢	$59.29	$62	+$2.71	68% 830-398 (1228)
0xdc3E831cad<$100	Noavg 82¢	$0.95	$1.13	+$0.18	49% 1830-1896 (3726)

Talophex

Invested

$19,311.74

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$784.49

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

HotDogs

Invested

$10,306.46

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$176.67

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

StraddleSeller

Invested

$2,901.37

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$369.68

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$1,668

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$179.75

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$1,158.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$45.98

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

57284910

Invested

$244.38

Value

$245.07

PnL

+$0.56

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100

Invested

$99.35

Value

$99.35

PnL

+$3.28

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$95.8

Value

$97.25

PnL

+$1.4

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

TheKinginYellow<$100

Invested

$59.29

Value

$62

PnL

+$2.71

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

0xdc3E831cad<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.