Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 59¢ · $21K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 59.1¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares27,404

Combined PnL-$607.97

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares12,909

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 72.4¢	$8.4K	$7.1K	$-1.4K	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
AN anoin123	Noavg 55.7¢	$6.0K	$6.4K	+$382.75	47% 476-535 (1011)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 23.4¢	$1.6K	$3.7K	+$2.2K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
ST StraddleSeller	Noavg 50.5¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$256.13	60% 174-115 (289)
TH TheImpasseCTR	Yesavg 32.9¢	$474.19	$605.22	+$113.02	22% 145-528 (673)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 42.4¢	$452	$447.8	-$15.92	57% 1114-837 (1951)
GollumGekko	Noavg 47.2¢	$359.06	$427.61	+$68.55	68% 2074-958 (3032)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 37.1¢	$371	$420	+$37.5	36% 397-691 (1088)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 30.4¢	$32.49	$116.11	+$83.62	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 40.8¢	$81.6	$114.18	+$36.7	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
George.SmileyCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.5¢	$73	$84	+$8.6	62% 142-88 (230)
Optimus-<$100	Noavg 44¢	$51.5	$70.03	+$18.53	61% 1200-768 (1968)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$52.49	$59.92	+$7.43	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.8¢	$36.78	$34.52	+$5.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.1¢	$22.45	$25.4	+$1.77
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 57.5¢	$141.44	$56.56	+$11.21	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 46¢	$30.69	$28.54	-$2.15	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$8,440.7

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

anoin123

Invested

$6,041.83

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$382.75

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,595.34

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

StraddleSeller

Invested

$1,435.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$256.13

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

TheImpasseCTR

Yes

Invested

$474.19

Value

$605.22

PnL

+$113.02

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$452

Value

$447.8

PnL

-$15.92

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

GollumGekko

Invested

$359.06

Value

$427.61

PnL

+$68.55

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$371

Value

$420

PnL

+$37.5

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$32.49

Value

$116.11

PnL

+$83.62

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$81.6

Value

$114.18

PnL

+$36.7

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

George.SmileyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73

Value

$84

PnL

+$8.6

Record

62%

142-88 (230)

Optimus-<$100

Invested

$51.5

Value

$70.03

PnL

+$18.53

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Invested

$52.49

Value

$59.92

PnL

+$7.43

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Both legs:

No$36.7860.8¢+$5.65

Yes$22.4537.1¢+$1.77

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$141.44

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$11.21

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$30.69

Value

$28.54

PnL

-$2.15

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.1%

59.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.