Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 74¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 74.2¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares17,306

Combined PnL+$2.1K

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,966

Combined PnL-$234.86

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST StraddleSellerCTR	Yesavg 13.3¢	$1.9K	$3.6K	+$1.8K	60% 174-115 (289)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 82.8¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$221.97	89% 4653-547 (5200)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$206.53	$500.52	+$293.99	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
TH TheImpasse	Noavg 76.4¢	$206.97	$201.49	-$6.3	22% 145-528 (673)
SE segment3CTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$119.5	$126	+$8.75	57% 12-9 (21)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$51	$75.6	+$25.95	57% 1114-837 (1951)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$42.45	$37.18	-$5.28	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$13.36	$14.93	+$2.35	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
mountaindewdCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$9	$9.48	+$0.67	54% 344-290 (634)
TheKinginYellow<$100	Noavg 85¢	$10.57	$9.25	-$1.32	68% 830-398 (1228)

StraddleSellerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,940.35

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

nonkenny90

Invested

$2,179.61

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$221.97

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$206.53

Value

$500.52

PnL

+$293.99

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

TheImpasse

Invested

$206.97

Value

$201.49

PnL

-$6.3

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

segment3CTR

Yes

Invested

$119.5

Value

$126

PnL

+$8.75

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51

Value

$75.6

PnL

+$25.95

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$42.45

Value

$37.18

PnL

-$5.28

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.36

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$2.35

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

mountaindewdCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

TheKinginYellow<$100

Invested

$10.57

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$1.32

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.