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Consensus PnL $58K · win rate 84% (81–15, n=96) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
0x0b219cf3...56b8deb6Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$57.6K
Record
81W / 15L
Win Rate
84.0%
of 96 settled
Batting Avg
63.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#359
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,094
Markets
256
Volume
$3.8M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 13 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $89K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $23K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $19K · now 90¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $8.4K · now 84¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $7.1K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (57% of 29)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No $6.6K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No $4.2K · now 95¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (78% of 10)
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?No $3.5K · now 97¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (64% of 15)
Specialties
210 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 79¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 91% of 23 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 32% of 19)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 59% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 94% of 164)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.