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7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 95¢ · $19K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 94.8¢

+35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares16,922

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares35,723

Combined PnL$-8.5K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CQ cqs	Noavg 70.1¢	$7.0K	$9.4K	+$2.5K	65% 228-122 (350)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 68.6¢	$3.0K	$4.2K	+$1.2K	80% 168-42 (210)
SwissMissCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$10.5K	$1.8K	$-8.4K	66% 476-245 (721)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 74.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$455.77	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
88 881112ARB<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$3.7K	$1.4K	$-2.3K	38% 567-944 (1511)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.9¢	$3.3K	$890.66	$-2.3K
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$499.05	$520.16	+$21.39
WA wan123	Noavg 73¢	$411.37	$534.78	+$123.41	39% 196-304 (500)
TT tttt123	Noavg 83.5¢	$167	$189.7	+$22.7	72% 1535-585 (2120)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$95.05	$22.56	-$72.49	51% 2097-1976 (4073)
siick<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$14.36	$19.9	+$5.54	57% 768-580 (1348)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100	Noavg 75¢	$2.53	$3.2	+$0.67	45% 3592-4351 (7943)

cqs

Invested

$6,968.34

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

TerreMoto

Invested

$2,996.93

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

SwissMissCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,488.77

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$1,686.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$455.77

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

881112ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,697.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Both legs:

Yes$3,267.0618.9¢$-2.3K

No$499.0591¢+$21.39

wan123

Invested

$411.37

Value

$534.78

PnL

+$123.41

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

tttt123

Invested

$167

Value

$189.7

PnL

+$22.7

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.05

Value

$22.56

PnL

-$72.49

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

siick<$100

Invested

$14.36

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$5.54

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100

Invested

$2.53

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.67

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.