US strike on Mexico by December 31?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $72K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.6K

Combined PnL

$10.0K

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 97¢

+14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$70.9K

Total Shares73,083

Combined PnL+$12.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$462.13

Total Shares15,374

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jan777	Noavg 91¢	$4.9K	$27.7K	+$5.2K	55% 61-50 (111)
TH thoodr	Noavg 90.5¢	$19.7K	$21.1K	+$1.4K	96% 631-24 (655)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 75¢	$8.1K	$10.5K	+$2.4K	80% 437-110 (547)
MEPP	Noavg 69.4¢	$3.9K	$5.5K	+$1.6K	64% 633-352 (985)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 66.9¢	$2.4K	$3.5K	+$1.1K	80% 168-42 (210)
ImJustKen	Noavg 82.5¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$277.94	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 68¢	$342.79	$488.72	+$145.94	76% 145-47 (192)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 23.4¢	$557.85	$295.83	-$262.02	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.8¢	$155.88	$191.68	+$3.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.4¢	$813.6	$104.15	-$265.46
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$789.41	$182.46	-$606.95	51% 2097-1976 (4073)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 20.4¢	$569.45	$123.08	-$446.36	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 71¢	$71	$96.95	+$25.95	72% 1535-585 (2120)
LI lissartter<$100	No	$94.6	$94.6	+$34.47	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$101.79	$55.87	-$45.91	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 26.8¢	$454.99	$51	-$403.13	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$641.14	$49.72	-$591.42	69% 987-450 (1437)
Dragontree<$100	Noavg 83¢	$16.6	$19.39	+$2.79	58% 1250-888 (2138)

Jan777

Invested

$4,854.38

Value

$27.7K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

55%

61-50 (111)

thoodr

Invested

$19,698.26

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Kevindoto

Invested

$8,086.45

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

MEPP

Invested

$3,939.17

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

TerreMoto

Invested

$2,440.62

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,593.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$277.94

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$342.79

Value

$488.72

PnL

+$145.94

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$557.85

Value

$295.83

PnL

-$262.02

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

No$155.8878.8¢+$3.44

Yes$813.623.4¢-$265.46

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR

Yes

Invested

$789.41

Value

$182.46

PnL

-$606.95

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$569.45

Value

$123.08

PnL

-$446.36

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$71

Value

$96.95

PnL

+$25.95

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$94.6

Value

$94.6

PnL

+$34.47

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.79

Value

$55.87

PnL

-$45.91

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$454.99

Value

$51

PnL

-$403.13

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$641.14

Value

$49.72

PnL

-$591.42

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Dragontree<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$19.39

PnL

+$2.79

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.